Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

The gaming community in the U.S. has been on a wild ride this week, starting with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, which quickly turned into dismay over its $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders, pending an assessment of the impact from the Trump Administration's sweeping tariffs on global trade. This unexpected twist has left gamers wondering whether the Nintendo Switch 2 will become even more expensive once pre-orders finally open.

We've already explored the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. Now, the burning question is: what will Nintendo do? Will the price of the Nintendo Switch 2 increase further?

Typically, when it comes to predicting video game industry trends, I consult a panel of expert analysts. Although they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on data and evidence. However, this week, every analyst I spoke with was stumped by the current situation. Some guessed that Nintendo would raise prices, while others thought they wouldn't, but all emphasized the unprecedented chaos and unpredictability of the moment.

With that in mind, here's a summary of what the analysts had to say:

Sky-High Switch

Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after the initial announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders has changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo may have no choice but to increase prices for the system, games, and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes," he said. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, suggesting they should have waited for the U.S. to resolve the tariff issue before setting prices. "Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense."

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment that the tariffs were unprecedented and unpredictable. He believes that prices, including Nintendo's, will likely increase, though the extent and specifics are uncertain. "Based on the conversations I'm having, the breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers," he said.

Piscatella noted that Nintendo likely had some assumptions about tariffs when setting the original price, but the actual tariffs were much higher than anticipated. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to."

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts an increase in hardware prices but believes software prices may not be as affected due to the growing dominance of digital distribution. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said. However, he added that if a substantial tariff were introduced, companies like Nintendo would likely pass the cost onto consumers through higher retail prices.

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid it. "I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks."

Van Dreunen added that the current price already reflects an anticipation of economic challenges due to ongoing trade disputes. However, he noted that the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions could force Nintendo to reassess if the trade landscape worsens.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo is in a difficult position after announcing the launch price. He suggests that the company will hope for a resolution in the coming weeks and may stick to the announced price until at least 2026. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now," he said. Harding-Rolls warns that a price change could impact the brand and consumer perception at launch, potentially affecting broader consumer interest during the crucial first holiday season.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He also points out that Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets may have been a response to offset tariff costs. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital," he said.

Elliott paints a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes that the tariffs will lead to a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," he said. "And even if companies can afford to switch up their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next – as recent news supports."

Elliott criticizes the tariffs as harmful to consumers and the economy, driven by political motives rather than economic principles. "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade," he said. "Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable."

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