Gaming market analyst DFC Intelligence forecasts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This impressive prediction surpasses all competitors, making the Switch 2 the "clear winner," according to their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast.
Dominating the Market by 2028: 80 Million Units Projected
DFC Intelligence's report, released December 17th, positions Nintendo as the console market leader, with Microsoft and Sony lagging behind. This projected success is attributed to the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and the current lack of significant competition. The report estimates sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, escalating to over 80 million units by 2028. The high demand may even challenge Nintendo's manufacturing capacity.
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring surprise releases) positions it for continued dominance. The report suggests only one post-Switch 2 console will achieve similar success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.
Nintendo's popularity is at its peak, with the Switch surpassing PlayStation 2 lifetime sales in the US, according to Circana (formerly NPD) data. Mat Piscatella, executive director and analyst at Circana, highlighted on BlueSky that the Switch, with 46.6 million lifetime units sold, is now the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.
Video Game Industry on the Rise
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the gaming industry. David Cole, founder and CEO, notes the industry's 20x growth over three decades and predicts a return to healthy growth by the end of the decade, following a two-year slump. 2025 is projected to be a particularly strong year, fueled by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI.
The gaming audience is also expanding, with projections exceeding 4 billion players by 2027. The rise of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" through portable systems, coupled with esports and gaming influencers, is driving hardware sales across PC and consoles.
